The most important question is why people want to have kids. Historically there have been many answers but right now the only answer remaining is because they want the parenting experience.
Most women do become mothers even in low fertility countries like South Korea and get to enjoy motherhood.
The problem is that 1 kid is enough to experience parenthood but to maintain population levels you need a TFR of 2.1 meaning you need most families to have 2 kids and many families with 3 kids not only to move the average above 2 but also to compensate for the childless. I don't see that happening.
I agree with most of this. Though I would at least divide these into moral arguments (or arguments about why you should or shouldn't care about fertility) and arguments about the causes of the fertility crisis.
"Racism", "Matt Walsh", "Pensions", and "You Hate Children" are all moral arguments. You could think up about a thousand of these, and some will intuitively appeal to some people, but I don't see much value in discussing them.
What it sounds like is no one that you identified besides Sol Hando has a real argument about causes (besides what you identified before). I agree with your criticism of the "it's obvious" arguments, frustration with them is what originally led me to hunt for more intelligent discussions of this topic. I'd also still point to the late comment I made on your other piece, reflecting on some possible reasons for decreased coupling that I didn't see you address.
"Vibes" are important, your discussion of vibes is left-coded, but vibes are generally bad for the right as well, even if not as bad as for the left. I'd disagree with your arguments about the causes of the bad vibes though. I don't buy that it's all caused by geopolitics or climate change, etc., I think those concerns are all downstream of the "vibecession". But I'll admit I'm biased because I don't really care about those things.
I think the underlying cause of bad vibes is that technology's ability to improve our lives is mostly spent. Smartphones and social media (the most visible technological advances of the past ~15 years) have generally made our lives worse. Further technological change is now seen as cause for fear more than optimism, while cost disease means that a lot of things in life are becoming less affordable, which isn't fully compensated for by media consumption and ordering on Amazon becoming more affordable and convenient. Our civilization doesn't really know what to hope for in the future if it isn't technology-driven improvements to our quality of life, so there's a shortage of hope.
Sol Hando has a Substack which he posts here so I presume he’s OK with people seeing his work publicly.
I didn’t explicitly link to the other comments because they were either in the form of direct replies or on Reddit, in which case the person didn’t necessarily grant permission.
Nevertheless I take your point, it makes it seem like I’m shadowboxing
No, I didn't mean to imply that. Maybe my sentence was unwieldy, but I was just saying that you didn't appear to pick up on any new interesting/thoughtful takes on the causes of the crisis besides Sol Hando's.
1. The best social safety net in your old age is your kids. To those of you expecting the government social safety nets to be adequate in your old age, I've got bad news. I hope you're rich if that's your plan.
2. Kids are by far the best way to learn how to lead. Much like getting married and staying married requires learning a certain skill set that translates into you becoming a better person, having and raising kids well unlocks the next level of growth.
3. "Men, whither is your course taking you, who give all possible attention to the acquiring of money but give small thought to your sons to whom ye are to leave it?" -Plutarch
4. Kids are a blast. I was expecting that they'd be pretty boring until they got to be old enough to play board games with, but they've been fun since "go", in continuously evolving ways, and in ways that you won't see until you live with young kids and are responsible for their upbringing.
Don't know how common this is, but we've been in the boat for the past 8+ years where we're both technically fertile and not avoiding having children and yet it hasn't happened. Not sure if microwaves or microplastics but we also won't show up in any stats because we haven't been seeking treatment per se. Increasingly we're realising that almost everyone else we meet like us - professionals in their 30s - who have young kids went through IVF to get them.
Great post Ron.
The most important question is why people want to have kids. Historically there have been many answers but right now the only answer remaining is because they want the parenting experience.
Most women do become mothers even in low fertility countries like South Korea and get to enjoy motherhood.
The problem is that 1 kid is enough to experience parenthood but to maintain population levels you need a TFR of 2.1 meaning you need most families to have 2 kids and many families with 3 kids not only to move the average above 2 but also to compensate for the childless. I don't see that happening.
I agree with most of this. Though I would at least divide these into moral arguments (or arguments about why you should or shouldn't care about fertility) and arguments about the causes of the fertility crisis.
"Racism", "Matt Walsh", "Pensions", and "You Hate Children" are all moral arguments. You could think up about a thousand of these, and some will intuitively appeal to some people, but I don't see much value in discussing them.
What it sounds like is no one that you identified besides Sol Hando has a real argument about causes (besides what you identified before). I agree with your criticism of the "it's obvious" arguments, frustration with them is what originally led me to hunt for more intelligent discussions of this topic. I'd also still point to the late comment I made on your other piece, reflecting on some possible reasons for decreased coupling that I didn't see you address.
"Vibes" are important, your discussion of vibes is left-coded, but vibes are generally bad for the right as well, even if not as bad as for the left. I'd disagree with your arguments about the causes of the bad vibes though. I don't buy that it's all caused by geopolitics or climate change, etc., I think those concerns are all downstream of the "vibecession". But I'll admit I'm biased because I don't really care about those things.
I think the underlying cause of bad vibes is that technology's ability to improve our lives is mostly spent. Smartphones and social media (the most visible technological advances of the past ~15 years) have generally made our lives worse. Further technological change is now seen as cause for fear more than optimism, while cost disease means that a lot of things in life are becoming less affordable, which isn't fully compensated for by media consumption and ordering on Amazon becoming more affordable and convenient. Our civilization doesn't really know what to hope for in the future if it isn't technology-driven improvements to our quality of life, so there's a shortage of hope.
Sol Hando has a Substack which he posts here so I presume he’s OK with people seeing his work publicly.
I didn’t explicitly link to the other comments because they were either in the form of direct replies or on Reddit, in which case the person didn’t necessarily grant permission.
Nevertheless I take your point, it makes it seem like I’m shadowboxing
No, I didn't mean to imply that. Maybe my sentence was unwieldy, but I was just saying that you didn't appear to pick up on any new interesting/thoughtful takes on the causes of the crisis besides Sol Hando's.
A few to add:
1. The best social safety net in your old age is your kids. To those of you expecting the government social safety nets to be adequate in your old age, I've got bad news. I hope you're rich if that's your plan.
2. Kids are by far the best way to learn how to lead. Much like getting married and staying married requires learning a certain skill set that translates into you becoming a better person, having and raising kids well unlocks the next level of growth.
3. "Men, whither is your course taking you, who give all possible attention to the acquiring of money but give small thought to your sons to whom ye are to leave it?" -Plutarch
4. Kids are a blast. I was expecting that they'd be pretty boring until they got to be old enough to play board games with, but they've been fun since "go", in continuously evolving ways, and in ways that you won't see until you live with young kids and are responsible for their upbringing.
If your first argument is against The Great Replacement then it's probably true.
Don't know how common this is, but we've been in the boat for the past 8+ years where we're both technically fertile and not avoiding having children and yet it hasn't happened. Not sure if microwaves or microplastics but we also won't show up in any stats because we haven't been seeking treatment per se. Increasingly we're realising that almost everyone else we meet like us - professionals in their 30s - who have young kids went through IVF to get them.